Archive | August 4, 2014

Violent Super Typhoon Halong Turns North Towards Japan

Violent Typhoon Halong continues to stir up the ocean east of the Philippines Monday Morning. This is the highest ranking on the JMAs intensity scale of TS to Violent.
The storm has now started to turn WNW as well rounding the west pac high to the north west.
As we look ahead the forecast is looking more and more like the CENTER of Halong will miss Okinawa Honto to the east and push towards Kagoshima on Thursday and Friday. Maybe even pushing up the coast towards the Kanto Plain through the weekend.
Good news max winds in Okinawa probably will be Tropical Storm Strength based on the current track.  Current forecast would indicate 35kts sustained with gust up to 55kts.
This would means near or maybe even less than what we saw a few days ago as Tropical Storm Nakri Passed to the west.
As we seen with Nakri this is still enough to blow stuff around so be prepped at the very least for this passing storm. Furthermore this still could change though so we will continue to keep you updated. I know for the US Military in Okinawa TCCOR 4 has been issued.  JMA has also put Okinawa under a 70% probability of 50kt winds or more as seen on the graphic to the left indicated by the red polygon.
JMA Forecast
Key thing to note this is still several days out and the FORECAST COULD CHANGE. A waver by only 50-100km in either direction of the center line could mean the difference between calm winds and sunny skies or being inside the core of the storm with white out conditions and flooding rains. Thus continue to check the forecast!
Thursday morning gale force winds will start to set in. Scattered showers could bring localized downpours and waves up to 4-5 meters high will be present.
Thursday Night the worst of the conditions will likely start to set in and during the overnight hours Tropical Storm Strength winds (35-45kts Sustained Likely) will blow from the north east across the island.
Friday winds will switch from the west and then the south west with Tropical Storm Strength winds tapering off by the afternoon hours.
ECMWF Model Output Thursday Night
Further North
The islands that will take the brunt of the storm though is the Amami islands and southern Kagoshima. Here Halong is expected to make landfall as still a very strong Typhoon packing damaging winds and heavy rains which could be the bigger threat.
The main reason for that is after Nakri much of the area has already been saturated. In Shikoku several locations recorded well over 1,000mm of rainfall in a 3 day period. This has resulted in wide spread flooding and landslides. Any more rain on top of that could make for very dangerous conditions.

Bangladesh ferry disaster: Vessel capsizes on river with hundreds on board

Breaking News

A rescue operation is underway in central Bangladesh after a ferry carrying up to 250 passengers capsized while crossing a river. Scores of people are said be missing.

Reports said the vessel, the MV Pinak, was crossing the River Padma in Munshiganj district, around 20 miles from the capital Dhaka, when it ran into problems.

Local media reports said that up to 250 people – or even more – may have been on board at the time. Fire and rescue crews were hurried to the scene in an effort to save people who had fallen into the water. One unconfirmed report said up to 50 people had been rescued by early afternoon local time and that two bodies had been recovered.

Samsuddoha Khondaker, chairman of the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, told the Associated Press he was unsure of the number of passengers who were being transported or what may have caused the accident.

Such accidents are all too commonplace in Bangladesh as a result of safety standards being ignored and intense overcrowding onboard such vessels, especially in rural parts of the country where they are an important and even essential form of transport. In May, about 50 people died in the same district in a ferry accident.

At least 50 new wildfires spring to life in BC, Canada

Wild Fire Alert

“Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue for at least the next five days. We have instability in the forecast and strong winds across the province as well as more dry lightning.”

That dry lightning moved across the province swiftly last night, causing 50 brand new wildfires to bring the total to 194.

While none of the fires are close enough to issue any evacuation notices, Navi Saini with the Wildfire Management Branch says crews are on standby with more instability in the forecast.

“We are keeping a close eye on those conditions and we are allocating resources strategically across the province based on those wildfire starts.”

With the battle against the blazes hinging largely on how severe tonight’s round of dry lightning is, firefighters and extra resources are on hand and on standby should the wildfire situation escalate out of control.

Most of the wildfires are burning across the Prince George, Kamloops, and southeast regions of the province.

Wildfires Scorch Over 32 Square Miles in Oregon, California, USA

california wildfires

More than a dozen Oregon and California wildfires blazing across both states have wreaked havoc as crews work to contain the fires. High temperatures and extreme drought conditions have made the fires even more of a burden to extinguish.


The wildfires in Northern California prompted Gov. Jerry Brown to issue a state of emergency over the weekend. The declaration secures firefighting cost reimbursement for local and state agencies responding to the fires as reported by USA Today.


The wildfires have scorched over 32 square miles across both states and put hundreds of buildings at risk.


Gov. Brown secured a federal grant on Saturday to cover 75% of the cost to fight a wildfire that began in Oregon and crossed over into California.


Three of the California wildfires were started by lightning. The fires have led to the evacuations of at least four towns.


As a number of wildfires continue to take over thousands of acres in the northern region of the state, firefighters are obtaining assistance from the Air National Guard’s 146th Airlift Wing.


Two C-130J military aircrafts landed at McClelland Airfield on Saturday for assistance. CalFire and the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services requested the aerial assistance.


“This particular airplane drops between 3,000 gallons of retardant and the airplane is also used for every other air force mission that can be imagined,” said 146th Airlift Wing pilot Lt. Col. Bill Willson.


Ground crews continued to work on the Day Fire blazing through Modoc County. Day Fire has burned nearly 19 square miles and threatens 200 structures. Aerial assistance has help to slow the fire’s progression. The fire is 25% contained.


“We put two loads of retardant on it,” Wilson said. “It’s currently burning to the southeast and we protected a town to the north.”


“It’s essentially a predictable fire season today,” Wilson said. “But tomorrow, that may change very rapidly, so mother nature has a tendency to have her own design on how she wants to start fires, and most of these fires were started by lightning strikes.”



Subject To Change

Depth: 10 km

Distances: 143km (89mi) SSE of Raoul Island, New Zealand
985km (612mi) NE of Whangarei, New Zealand
992km (616mi) NE of Whakatane, New Zealand
1011km (628mi) NE of Tauranga, New Zealand
1047km (651mi) S of Nuku`alofa, Tonga

Global view



***BE ALERT***

Magnetogram 04.08.14  21.08 hrs UTC


Subject To Change

Depth: 46 km

Distances: 145km (90mi) NNW of Sikabaluan, Indonesia
152km (94mi) SSW of Padangsidempuan, Indonesia
177km (110mi) S of Sibolga, Indonesia
185km (115mi) WNW of Pariaman, Indonesia
474km (295mi) SW of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Global view


Subject To Change

Depth: 58 km

Distances: 491 km NW of Medan, Indonesia / pop: 1,750,971 / local time: 17:36:10.3 2014-08-04
73 km W of Banda Aceh, Indonesia / pop: 250,757 / local time: 17:36:10.3 2014-08-04

Global viewRegional view


Subject To Change

Depth: 10 km

Distances: 345km (214mi) NNW of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea
572km (355mi) NNE of Wewak, Papua New Guinea
638km (396mi) NW of Kavieng, Papua New Guinea
676km (420mi) NE of Vanimo, Papua New Guinea
1150km (715mi) N of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

Global view


Subject To Change

Depth: 143 km

Distances: 512 km E of Dili, East Timor / pop: 150,000 / local time: 14:43:36.9 2014-08-04
434 km SE of Ambon, Indonesia / pop: 355,596 / local time: 14:43:36.9 2014-08-04
347 km SW of Tual, Indonesia / pop: 39,502 / local time: 14:43:36.9 2014-08-04

Global viewRegional view