Archive | October 14, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo Becomes Major Category 3 Hurricane; Late-Week Threat to Bermuda

Hurricane Alert

Hurricane Gonzalo has become the second major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) of the 2014 Atlantic season. It is currently pulling away from the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands, but it may target Bermuda later this week.
 
All hurricane and tropical storm warnings have now been dropped in the Caribbean. 
 
Air Force Hurricane Hunters early Tuesday morning measured wind speeds supporting an upgrade of Gonzalo to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday as the eye passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands.
 
Based on satellite data, NHC upgraded Gonzalo to a Category 3 hurricane Tuesday afternoon. That makes Gonzalo the second major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season, after Edouard. It’s the first major hurricane to form in the tropics — as opposed to the subtropics — since Sandy in October 2012.
 
Any additional strengthening would make Gonzalo the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone since Hurricane Ophelia peaked as Category 4 system in early October 2011.

Tropical Storm Ana gains strengths in Central Pacific

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The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Ana is currently 820 miles (1320 km) ESE of Hilo with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph (100 km/h), and moving WNW or 295 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h).
 
This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, 95 km from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb, 29.44 inches.
 
Latest satellite imagery indicates that Ana continues to become better organized with visible imagery indicating over-shooting cloud tops near the llcc. Latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates also indicate an intensification trend.
 
The forward motion of Ana has increased slightly over the past several hours. Ana is tracking generally westward under the influence of a deep layer ridge centered north of the system. Latest analyses depict strong southerly shear between Ana and the main Hawaiian islands due to the gradient between a closed low aloft west of the islands and the ridge north of Ana. However global models remain steadfast in forecasting a continued westward motion for the low aloft.
 
With the low retreating the expectation is that the ridge north of the system will become slightly better established through Wednesday keeping the system on a general westward track. The ridge will slowly slide southeastward Thursday and Friday with Ana then expected to move on an increasingly northwesterly track toward the end of the forecast period.
 
A mid-latitude trough passing north of the system will weaken the steering currents while also introducing a slightly less favorable shear profile. The interaction between Ana and the passing trough introduces increasing uncertainty to the track forecast at the longer ranges. The updated forecast is faster than the previous and shifted slightly to the left.
 
The intensity forecast closely follows the previous calling for Ana to become a hurricane by Wednesday but peaking at a slightly higher intensity on days 2 and 3 with Ana gradually weakening on days 4 and 5 due to the aforementioned changing shear profile, the injection of slightly drier air and marginally warm water temperatures along the forecast track.
 
Interests in the main Hawaiian islands should monitor the progress of this system through the week. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
This is the second tropical cyclone that has formed in the Central Pacific for the 2014 season.
5 Day Track

Cyclone Hudhud Of 130mph Flattens At Least 6,000 Buildings And Kills At Least 22 People In India

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At least 22 people are dead in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud, which ripped through India’s eastern coast Sunday and Monday with wind speeds over 100 miles per hour. The Times of India reports that 15 people were killed in the city of Visakhapatnam, six in Vizianagaram, and one in Srikakulam, with at least 6,600 houses destroyed.
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These people are standing in line for petrol after Hudhud passed through Visakhapatnam
At least 400,000 people are reported to have evacuated their homes before the storm struck, according to Indian media. Local reports from Visakhapatnam describe hospitals packed with displaced people, in addition to widespread power outages and skyrocketing prices for things like food and gasoline.
 
At its peak, Hudhud reached the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane, with wind speeds up to 130 miles per hour. At landfall, the cyclone was visible from space as a massive, swirling storm, seen on the left.
 
North India’s cyclone season tends to fall between April and December. A handful of storms had already formed earlier in this year’s season, including several depressions and a cyclone dubbed Nanauk, which formed in early June. However, even Nanauk’s wind speeds never exceeded 65 miles per hour, making Hudhud the worst of the bunch by far.
 
The weakening storm has moved inland now, as cleanup efforts get under way in the affected areas.
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People stand on boats damaged by strong winds caused by Cyclone Hudhud in the southern Indian city of Visakhapatnam October 13, 2014
Reports from social media further expand on the damage, with Twitter users posting images of the badly damaged Visakhapatnam airport, shown below:
 
Waiting lounge of Vizag Airport, looks like it has been hit by a bomb.
Embedded image permalink
The disaster comes almost exactly a year after last October’s Tropical Cyclone Phailin made landfall in the Indian state of Odisha, killing at least 44 people and forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate.
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People run for cover as Cyclone Hudhud hits Gopalpur, Odisha

MAGNITUDE 4.8 ICELAND REGION

Subject to change

Depth: 7.9 km
 

Distances: Latitude, Longitude  64.668 -17.444
(5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga)

Earthquake location   14 Oct 22:40 GMT

Map of earthquake epicentres

Time and magnitude of earthquake   14 Oct 22:40 GMT

Graph showing earthquake timing and magnitude

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS Kp Index is at level 5

***ALERT***

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS
Kp Index is at level 5
Scale of G1

Minor

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels.

Kp Index NOAA 14.10.14 21.45 hrs UTC

MASSIVE DIP SPIKES ON THE MAGNETOSPHERE @ APPROX 17:15, 18:00, 19:30, 20:00, 21:30 hrs UTC

**EXTREMELY URGENT**
   MASSIVE DIP SPIKES ON THE MAGNETOSPHERE @ APPROX 17:15, 18:00, 19:30, 20:00, 21:30 hrs UTC. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY & ADVERSE WEATHER PATTERNS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH’S CORE

***BE ALERT***

Magnetogram 14.10.14  20.39 hrs UTC

PROTON PARTICLES HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED

**URGENT PROTON ALERT**

PROTON PARTICLES HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY & ADVERSE WEATHER PATTERNS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH’S CORE

***BE ALERT***

Proton Alert 14.10.14 21.39 hrs UTC

MAGNITUDE 3.0 ICELAND REGION

Subject to change

Depth: 9.5 km
 

Distances: Latitude, Longitude  64.687 -17.429
(7.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga)

Earthquake location   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Map of earthquake epicentres

Time and magnitude of earthquake   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Graph showing earthquake timing and magnitude

MAGNITUDE 4.7 ICELAND REGION

Subject to change

Depth: 7.1 km
 

Distances: Latitude, Longitude  64.675 -17.463
(4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga)

Earthquake location   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Map of earthquake epicentres

Time and magnitude of earthquake   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Graph showing earthquake timing and magnitude

MAGNITUDE 4.5 ICELAND REGION

Subject to change

Depth: 4.9 km
 

Distances: Latitude, Longitude  64.617 -17.480
(3.5 km SE of Bárðarbunga)

Earthquake location   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Map of earthquake epicentres

Time and magnitude of earthquake   14 Oct 21:05 GMT

Graph showing earthquake timing and magnitude