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#UK could be hit by another ‘Beast from the East’ this #winter, say #scientists

Freezing weather in March 2018

Britain could be facing a new “Beast from the East” big freeze this winter, scientists have warned.

After studying sea temperatures and air pressures over the north Atlantic Ocean, climate experts have suggested January and February 2020 could be among the coldest for decades.

This would be caused by the jet stream – strong winds that move weather systems across from the Atlantic to Britain – deflecting southwards for weeks around Christmas, allowing freezing air to dominate the country, it is predicted.

The predictions for over four months’ time are one of the longest-range UK weather forecasts ever attempted.

Freezing weather in February 2018

Scientists from University College London have forecast an average temperature of 3.9C (39F) for January to February next year in central England – which they said was 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average for the same period.

The team, led by Mark Saunders, professor of climate prediction at UCL, wrote in a paper: “This would rank 2020 January-February central England as the coldest winter since January-February 2013.

“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the last 30 years, and the 23rd coldest winter since 1953.”

“There is a 57% chance the central England temperature will be colder than the 4.1C (39.4F) in 2018, thus making it the coldest January-February since 2013,” they added.

The 2018 “Beast from the East” happened as very cold air swept in from Russia.

It brought unusually low temperatures and heavy snowfall to large parts of the UK in late February and March last year.

Seventeen people died, including a seven-year-old girl, and temperatures plummeted to -17C in the Cairngorms in Scotland.

The possible new extreme freezing weather would contrast markedly with this July when the UK recorded its highest-ever temperature, which was 38.7C (101.7F) in Cambridge.

Courtesy of Sky News


#Disruptive #Snow Could Hit The #UK Next Week According To The #MetOffice


Beast From The East Alert





Is there another ‘Beast from the East’ on the way?

Beast From The East Alert

Judah Cohen @judah47 has just announced the following news: It’s official Stratospheric Major Warming and #PolarVortex split! Second in two years. Both PV splits under different phases of ENSO, MJO and QBO. What is the same? High October Eurasian #snow cover extent and low Barents-Kara sea ice concentration both years. Coincidence?

Official blog of the Met Office news team

There have been many headlines in recent days proclaiming a return of the ‘Beast from the East’ and ‘triple polar vortex to trigger heavy snow’ with bookies reportedly cutting the odds that this month will end as the coldest January on record following a sudden stratospheric warming high above the Arctic.

So, just how much truth lies behind these headlines and what can we really say about the weather for the coming month? Our Deputy Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly explains.

Well, it is true that a sudden stratospheric warming has happened. The warming started around 22 December 2018 and the winds at around 30km above the North Pole have now reversed from westerly to easterly. At ground level we know that sudden stratospheric warmings tend to weaken the UK’s prevailing mild westerly winds, increasing the chances of us seeing colder weather a couple of weeks after…

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Bitter Easterly Winds For UK In 2 Weeks According To CFS 0z Model? (Subject To Change!!)

Bitter Easterly Winds For UK In 2 Weeks According To CFS 0z Model?

(Subject To Change!!)

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 Scani High Forming 8.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 850hPa 8.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 Easterly Winds 9.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 850hPa 9.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 Easterly Winds 10.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 850hPa 10.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 Easterly Winds 11.12.18 18.00hrs

CFS 0Z 23.11.18 850hPa 11.12.18 18.00hrs

Severe winter weather postpones potato season by at least three weeks and yield could be 20% lower in Jersey

 Jersey royal potatoes being dug from the ground
Jersey royal season usually runs from April to mid-July. Photograph: Clare Lewington/
The Jersey Royal season is at least three weeks late after the “beast from the east” delayed the planting of the spring crop.
The potato’s short season, usually from April to mid-July, has been affected by hard frosts and almost double the 30-year average of rainfall in December and January, which growers say left the ground saturated and “undesirable for planting”.
Jersey normally exports around 30,000 tonnes of the potatoes to the UK each season, but producers say the figure could be up to 20% lower this year, with full volumes expected to be on supermarket shelves by mid-May.
Tim Ward, operations director at the grower Albert Bartlett, said: “The hard frosts we received from the beast from the east affected most of the early crops.
“Although quality and taste will remain unaffected, we are at least three weeks behind our expected start date and are still in need of spring to arrive to avoid further delays.
“This is the nature of seasonal produce, with no two seasons ever the same,” Ward added. “We normally face some challenges planting, predominantly during the winter months. However, a number of our fifth-generation farmers have not experienced such a trying period in their family businesses for many years.”
The Jersey Royal Company’s director of sales and marketing, William Church, said: “We are behind with planting, with only two-thirds of the export crop planted to date.
“In any other year we’d expect to be closer to 75% planted and have made a good start with planting the seed crop by now.”
Church said the crop delay and loss was unprecedented in his experience. “In 2013, there was a heavy snowfall in early March that caused disruption and some crop loss. This year, virtually all of the early areas were affected by the frost and, while plants will recover and produce excellent potatoes, the crops will undoubtedly produce a reduced yield.”
Courtesy of

Paris coldest since 1888 as cold & snow sweep across Europe

Record Cold Alert
The Beast from the East 2 has driven some remarkable cold and snow across Europe.
Following the biggest snowfall since 2010 and second biggest since 1989 in February, Paris, France observed another 4cm but also observed it’s coldest maximum for late March since 1975 with a high of only 1.7C.
The day before it only reached 1.8C which according to Etienne Kapikian (@EKMeteo) is the first back to back days to fail to reach 2C for the 2nd half of March since 1888.
Courtesy of