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Is there another ‘Beast from the East’ on the way?
Judah Cohen @judah47 has just announced the following news: It’s official Stratospheric Major Warming and #PolarVortex split! Second in two years. Both PV splits under different phases of ENSO, MJO and QBO. What is the same? High October Eurasian #snow cover extent and low Barents-Kara sea ice concentration both years. Coincidence?
There have been many headlines in recent days proclaiming a return of the ‘Beast from the East’ and ‘triple polar vortex to trigger heavy snow’ with bookies reportedly cutting the odds that this month will end as the coldest January on record following a sudden stratospheric warming high above the Arctic.
So, just how much truth lies behind these headlines and what can we really say about the weather for the coming month? Our Deputy Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly explains.
Well, it is true that a sudden stratospheric warming has happened. The warming started around 22 December 2018 and the winds at around 30km above the North Pole have now reversed from westerly to easterly. At ground level we know that sudden stratospheric warmings tend to weaken the UK’s prevailing mild westerly winds, increasing the chances of us seeing colder weather a couple of weeks after…
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High Energy And Cosmic Rays’ Alert
An influx of high energy due on 16th to 19th Nov will penetrate the weak magnetosphere. I’m expecting this energy to destabilize the erratic polar vortex region. Also, cosmic rays are peaking at high levels which will enhance cloud seeding allowing a much colder theme.
Photo Courtesy Of spaceweather.com
Surprised Cold Period Could Last Throughout April In Parts Of Canada
Environment Canada’s senior climatologist says he’s surprised how long winter is lasting on the Prairies and warns the cold temperatures could persist through the end of April.
David Phillips blames a polar vortex for the current spring cold snap.
Temperatures in the region are still in the negative double digits today, with lows reaching -27 C with the wind chill in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
In southern Alberta, a snowfall warning is calling for up to 20 centimetres of the white stuff.
Phillips says it’s difficult to see such conditions last longer than a day or two at this time of year.
The Weather Network’s forecast centre manager says the conditions will delay the spring runoff.
Courtesy of ctvnews.ca
‘Beast from the East’ cold blast could bring freezing weather until March
A cold blast about to hit the UK could last until March
A blast of cold weather known as “Beast from the East” is set to send temperatures plummeting across the UK.
The mercury is expected to fall steadily over the coming days, with snow and icy conditions forecast for large swathes of the country next week.
The Met Office said a rare North Pole phenomenon called a “sudden stratospheric warming” will bring a prolonged spell of cold weather that could last into early March.
The event disrupted the polar vortex in the upper atmosphere, resulting in bitterly cold air sweeping in from Siberia, according to forecasters.
A rare North Pole phenomenon will bring freezing temperatures
Next week temperatures are expected to hit 1C or 2C (33F or 35F) for most of the country, and -5C (23F) at night.
Sky News weather presenter Joanna Robinson warned that while spring should be approaching, winter was “far from over” for the UK.
She said: “There is increasing confidence that easterly winds will develop, dragging in very cold air from Siberia as early as next week.
“This set up is often referred to as the ‘Beast from the East’.
Parts of England are at risk of heavy snow showers
“It’s not just the UK that will be affected, much of Europe will see temperatures well below average.”
Ms Robinson said there is an “an increasing threat of disruptive snow”, with central, southern and eastern parts of England at risk of heavy snow showers.
Courtesy of Sky News
Powerful Arctic Cold Blast To Hit Europe
Recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event above the North Pole is about to channel in very cold Arctic air into large parts of Europe starting early next week. Very cold weather could extend into early March.
“Global models are trending into a powerful blocking pattern developing across northern Europe, resulting in a channel for significant cold air advection from the Arctics and Russia towards Europe,” SWE meteorologists warned. “Some models are pushing the very cold weather well W-SW towards western and SW Europe as well, so basically a large part of Europe will be affected by the SSW.”
Signs of SSW event appeared in forecasts from late January and in the last few days, we have seen a dramatic rise in air temperature at around 30 km (18.6 miles) above the North Pole.
“A Sudden Stratospheric Warming implies around a 70% chance of cold conditions across the UK,” the UK Met Office Chief Operational Meteorologist Frank Saunders said.
“There tends to be a lag of about 10 days before we see the downstream effects on the UK’s weather, as it takes time for the influence in the upper atmosphere to feed down to those levels where our weather happens.
“The outcome for the UK’s weather is still uncertain, but forecasts from computer models at the Met Office and at other centers are beginning to coalesce around a greater likelihood of cold conditions in the days and weeks to come,” he said.
Courtesy of watchers.news
Warnings issued as Sudden Stratospheric Warming threatens Europe including the UK with a big freeze
Weather models are suggesting a very high probability of a rare North Pole weather phenomenon called Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) taking place later this month and bringing prolonged bitterly-cold temperatures to the United Kingdom and parts of Europe. Such weather event hasn’t occurred since 2010 when it brought coldest March for 51 years to Scotland.
“There is a clear indication of an imminent split in the polar vortex, currently located over central-western Greenland. The main center will drift to the Canadian Plains, while a new area will form over northern Russia,” TWC forecaster Dr. Dave Reynolds said. “This will drift towards the Caspian Sea, then westwards across the Mediterranean, Iberia and out to the near Atlantic during the next two weeks, weakening as it does so.”
The polar vortex is expected to split during Thursday, February 8 and Friday, February 9, and become well developed by Sunday, February 11.
“The process of vortex splitting is accompanied by Sudden Stratospheric Warming, whereby temperatures in the stratosphere rise. This warming can then extend downwards through the depth of the atmosphere and result in an increased risk of blocking, which in winter-time raises the chance of widespread cold conditions developing,” said Reynolds.
This process won’t take place overnight as it usually takes 10 to 25 days to form and there is still uncertainty of how things will develop. However, computer models indicate a cold, blocked pattern over Scandinavia for the last week of February and first week of March, reinforced by a possible polar vortex split and accompanying stratospheric warming.
The warning is contained in the UK government official February to April forecast being briefed to the Cabinet Office, transport bosses, councils and emergency services.
The UK Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern takes a look at the trend during the next 10 days and explains the phenomenon:
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is an event in which the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.
Although sudden stratospheric warmings are mainly forced by planetary-scale waves which propagate up from the lower atmosphere, there is also a subsequent return effect of sudden stratospheric warmings on the surface weather.
Following SSW, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe.
Courtesy of watchers.news
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