Tag Archive | Category 1 hurricane

Tropical Storm Erika to become a hurricane; sets sights on South Florida

If it keeps itself together, Tropical Storm Erika could be off South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane late Sunday.
 
South Florida, home to millions of people, is now in the so-called “cone of uncertainty” at the end of the current 5-day forecast. Erika could be positioned anywhere inside that cone, based on information currently available.
 
Of course, hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict in strength and position beyond three days. Some models have had Erika dissipating over Hispaniola far to the east-southeast of Florida. Other models have shown the storm becoming even more powerful, nearing Category 2 strength. Some models have the storm curving out into the Atlantic, avoiding the Florida peninsula. National Hurricane Center forecasts typically follow a consensus of the models.
 
Erika formed in the Atlantic Monday night and has been following a track similar to Hurricane Danny, which has now dissipated into a remnant low pressure system after bringing rains to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.
 
After showing some disorganization earlier in the day, NHC forecasters say Erika has regained some composure and is beginning to look more impressive. Erika’s winds are estimated at 40 mph and the storm is expected to strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and faces moderate wind shear, which can tear tropical storms apart, for the next two days.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft inspected Erika Tuesday afternoon, gathering direct data that confirmed earlier estimates of the storm’s strength.
 
Computer models have been mixed on Erika’s future, and the NHC issued its 5 p.m. Eastern forecast update with a caveat that the storm’s future is uncertain. Erika is expected to reach hurricane strength Sunday about 100 miles east-southeast of Miami. But because of the models’ divergence, that prediction has a low confidence.
 
The models also show a range of tracks for Erika, with the NHC giving the fast-moving storm a track over the Lesser Antilles on Thursday morning, then north of Hispaniola on Friday and north of Cuba on Saturday. A tropical storm watch is already in effect in the northern Lesser Antilles.
 
Intensity models updated at 8 a.m. on Weather Underground show Erika growing much stronger, approaching 100 mph winds by Monday.
 
Although hurricane forecasting has advanced in recent years, particularly what paths storms take, reliable forecasts beyond three days remain elusive.
 
The remnants of Danny haven’t just faded away. They’ve drifted into the Caribbean, where they remain under watch by NHC forecasters, though the collection of thunderstorms isn’t given much chance of reforming into a cyclone.
Courtesy of upi.com

Hurricane ‘Lowell’ Alert In The Eastern Pacific

Lowell became the seventh hurricane of the season in the Eastern Pacific, far from Hawaii.

The large storm reached maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph Thursday morning, making it a category 1 hurricane.

The eye of Lowell was about 810 miles west-southwest of Baja, California in Mexico at 5 a.m., moving Northeast at 6 mph.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters.

Lowell is influencing the path of Tropical Storm Karina, to its west, Karina was about 1,240 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 5a.m., packing sustained winds of 60 mph. It had stalled as Lowell began pulling at Karina. The storm is moving south at 2 mph, but is expected to turn toward the northeast, away from Hawaii.

Neither storm is expected to affect Hawaii’s weather.

Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific continues to be active this summer.

Another area of thunderstorms southeast of Acapulco has a 70 percent chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days and a 90 percent chance of strengthening in the next five days.

HURRICANE FORMS OFF MEXICO, STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY

Hurricane Alert

The first hurricane of the eastern Pacific season formed hundreds of miles off Mexico’s coast Saturday and could become a major storm by Sunday though it poses no immediate threat to land, forecasters in Miami said.

Amanda emerged as a Category 1 hurricane about 645 miles (1,035 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and had sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Amanda was moving west-northwest Saturday at about 5 mph (7 kph) while rapidly intensifying.

Senior Hurricane Specialist Stacy Stewart told The Associated Press that Amanda does not appear to pose any threat to mainland Mexico at least over the next five days. He said it could become a major hurricane sometime Sunday, still far out in the Pacific.

“The forecast is calling for it to remain far offshore,” Stewart said, adding the storm could eventually generate strong surf, especially along Mexico’s Baja California coast.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect Saturday.

The eastern Pacific season opened May 15, two weeks ahead of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1.

Federal forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released forecasts for both areas recently. In the Atlantic, they said, they expect eight to 13 named tropical storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes. Of those, one or two major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph are forecast.

In the eastern Pacific, Stewart said, NOAA forecasters are calling for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, of which seven to 11 are forecast to become hurricanes. Three to six of those hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes, he said.