Tag Archive | Joint Typhoon Warning Center
After dumping deadly rains in the northern Philippines, Typhoon Goni strengthened on Sunday, bringing a record-shattering wind gust to the Japanese island of Ishigakijima.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the wind on Ishigakijima Island reached a maximum gust of 158.8 mph, or 71 meters per second, on Sunday, breaking the site’s all-time record of 157 miles per hour, which was set in 1977.
The airport on Ishigakijima measured a wind gust of 150.7 mph, or 67.4 meters per second, at 10:18 p.m. local time, which was 9:18 a.m. ET on Sunday morning, according to weather.com.
Typhoon Goni has been battering Japan’s Ryukyu Islands with sustained winds of up to 115 miles per hour, or 51.4 meters per second, after the storm intensified throughout Sunday. In fact, the storm may intensify further through Monday, local time, before it begins to weaken as it heads toward the more heavily populated islands of Kyushi.
The Ryukyu’s have been the equivalent of a typhoon magnet this year, having been hit with at least three significant storms so far this season.
The storm will also impact Okinawa, including Kadena Air Base, a U.S. military facility. It is not expected to make a direct hit there, though.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, or JTWC, which is a joint center run by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, is predicting that Typhoon Goni will pass about 100 nautical miles west of Kadena Air Base on August 24, followed by a potentially direct hit on Sasebo, Japan on the 25th.
That city has a population of about 280,000, and the storm is still expected to be a typhoon at that point, potentially even the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds between 96 to 110 miles per hour.
The storm is then forecast to veer close to the Korean Peninsula, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to southeastern South Korea, and then similar impacts to North Korea by August 26.
Taiwan, which saw more than 50 inches of rain from Typhoon Soudelor during the first week of August, missed major impacts from Typhoon Goni. Earlier forecasts showed the storm slowing down and meandering on top of the island for more than a day, raising the prospect of devastating floods.
Fortunately for Taiwan, that did not come to fruition, as the storm swung south, into the northern Philippines, before regaining strength a safe distance to the east.
Courtesy of mashable.com
Infrared Satellite: Goni
Typhoon Goni was pounding Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands as of Sunday evening Japanese time (Sunday morning U.S. time). Wind have gusted up to 97 mph at the airport on Ishigakijima Island as of this writing. This island was hit hard with strong winds from Typhoon Soudelor earlier this month
Prior to impacting southern Japan, Goni brought deadly impacts to the northern Philippines as it moved very slowly just north of Luzon Island. This resulted in a prolonged period of heavy rain and strong winds.
According to the U.S. military’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon Goni was located about 320 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Japan, and had maximum estimated sustained winds of 105 mph as of Sunday morning, U.S. time. That makes it the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some modest strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 36 hours, a weakening trend is likely early in the week as it tracks toward southwest Japan and South Korea.
Forecast Path: Goni – The latest storm statistics and forecast path from the U.S. military’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Goni Forecast: Japan Impacts Continue
After stalling for a time, steered by high pressure aloft to the southeast, Goni is now moving north-northeast. This is taking Goni through Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands.
Goni’s path will take it through the populated islands of Ishigakijima and Miyakojima through Monday morning.
The center of Goni could also pass near the main island of Okinawa, including Kadena Air Base, with a closest approach of the center sometime early Monday, local time.
Kadena Air Base elevated their tropical cyclone condition of readiness to TCCOR 2, meaning destructive winds are possible within 24 hours.
In response to a southward dip in the jet stream arriving over eastern China, it’s possible Goni may regain a little strength temporarily through early Monday, as upper-level winds may provide a boost to upward motion and thunderstorms within Goni’s circulation.
Goni is then expected to accelerate and track toward the southwest Japan — Kyushu, western Honshu, Shikoku — or perhaps eastern South Korea Tuesday, perhaps as a low-end typhoon or tropical storm.
Heading into the Sea of Japan, Goni should then make a final landfall as a tropical storm, depression, or remnant low somewhere near the Russia/northeast China/northeast North Korea triple point by mid-week.
Courtesy of weather.com
At least a dozen people have died and five are missing in the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou in the wake of Typhoon Soudelor, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency, which cited local disaster management officials.
It was one of the strongest storms anywhere in the world so far this year, with peak winds at 180 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The West Pacific Basin has seen 10 typhoons so far this year.
CNN iReporter documents conditions, damage in Kaohsiung
Soudelor made landfall Saturday night in the city of Putian, in China’s southern Fujian province. More than 185,000 people moved to higher ground, Xinhua reported. The typhoon weakened as it moved inland toward the northwest.
Earlier Saturday, it hit Taiwan north of the city of Hualien. One city in northern Taiwan saw a wind gust measured at 210 kilometers per hour (130 miles per hour).
Soudelor pounded Taiwan on Saturday with sustained winds of 52 miles per hour, the center said. Meteorologists said that Taipingshan received 40 inches of rain in two days.
Earlier in the weekend, Taiwan’s National Fire Agency said at least 185 people were injured.
Those killed in Taiwan included a mother and her 8-year-old daughter swept out to sea, the nation’s Central News Agency reported, adding that the girl’s twin sister is missing.
Authorities deployed more than 35,000 military personnel to relocate residents in vulnerable areas as the typhoon made its way across the Pacific Ocean.
Courtesy of edition.cnn.com
Typhoon Soudelor made landfall in the town of Hsiulin in eastern Hualien county at 4..40am (0640 AEST) Saturday morning, bringing fierce winds and torrential rain.
Forecasters had predicted the storm would have maximum sustained winds at landfall of about 125 mph (200 kph), the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.
Authorities in Taiwan had deployed more than 35,000 military personnel to help relocate residents of vulnerable areas as Soudelor made its way across the Pacific Ocean.
As of Friday midnight, some 82,000 homes were without power, according to Taiwan Power Company.
An eight-year-old girl and her mother had already become the first casualties after they were swept out to sea and died as the storm approached.
There were no immediate confirmed reports of further deaths early on Saturday but local media said a man had been killed overnight by a falling commercial sign in the coastal town of Suao.
Soudelor is expected to make its second landfall between Jinjiang and Fuqing tonight, bring torrential rain and gales to coastal cities in Fujian
After Taiwan, Soudelor will churn across the sea to mainland China. The storm is forecast to weaken by then but is still predicted to pack hurricane-strength winds when it makes landfall late Saturday.
Earlier this week, Soudelor became the strongest storm on the planet so far this year, with peak winds at 180 mph (290 kph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Soudelor is expected to make its second landfall between Jinjiang and Fuqing tonight, bring torrential rain and gales to coastal cities in Fujian.
Xiamen issued a red alert, the highest level in its warning system, against Soudelor at 10:50 a.m Saturday morning. Residents and tourists are suggested to stay indoors and adjust their travel plans to avoid any damages and loss due to the typhoon.
All scenic spots in Xiamen will be temporarily closed starting from 10:30 today.
Ferry services between Dongdu Port and Gulangyu Sanqiutian Wharf, Dongdu Port and Gulangyu Neicuo’ao Wharf, Haicang Songyu Wharf and Gulangyu Neicuo’ao Wharf, have been suspended starting from 0:00 a.m. on Saturday. The ferry company has promised a full refund for those have purchased the ferry tickets online. Ferry services between Kinmen and Xiamen will be suspended today.
99.5 pairs of trains in Xiamen Railway Station and Xiamen North Railway Station will be suspended on Saturday and 42.5 pairs will be suspended on Sunday.
Courtesy of whatsonxiamen.com
The tropical disturbance developing in Micronesia has moved three degrees north since it began forming Friday and could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two to three days, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center advised at midafternoon Saturday.
National Weather Service on Guam’s latest statement said Pohn’pei and Kosrae can expect from 4 to 7 inches of rain as the system develops, possibly causing landslides and flooding.
The disturbance, which would become the ninth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, is forecast to gradually turn west-northwest and could threaten the Marianas islands later this week.
Where it heads beyond that is way too soon to tell, officials said; computer models are all over the place at this point, some pointing it toward the Philippines, others toward Taiwan, possibly grazing Okinawa, and another curving sharply northeast toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. PST has it under finger.
If it does become a named storm, it would be called Chan-hom, Laotian for a type of tree.
Courtesy of stripes.com
Two tropical systems are seen in this satellite image of the Pacific Ocean basin. Typhoon Noul is marked TY06W. The system to its east stands a high chance of developing into a typhoon. (Source: JTWC)
As Typhoon Noul continues to spin up in the western Pacific Ocean, posing a distinct threat to the Philippines this weekend, a big tropical depression to the east is growing and stands a high chance of developing into a “significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours,” according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather over the Northwest Bahamas designated as Invest 90L could become a subtropical depression by Friday. The storm will likely bring heavy rain and high surf to the Carolinas on Friday.
Back in the Pacific, Noul has already brought high winds and heavy rain to Yap Island. The typhoon’s maximum sustained winds were pegged earlier today at 86 miles per hour, with gusts to 103. Here’s how the typhoon looked in satellite microwave imagery as it approached Yap:
Now it’s looking like Typhoon Noul’s track could take it a little to the west of where models previously forecast it to go — and that could be bad news for the Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the storm is currently expected to make landfall on the east coast of the Philippine island of Luzon early on Sunday local time — with sustained winds of 105 miles per hour. It’s important to note, however, that there is still some uncertainty about the storm’s ultimate track.
Here’s the JTC’s forecast (and note that “TAU” refers to the number of hours from the time of the forecast):
THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF LUZON, NEAR CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 84. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES; HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTH OF LAOAG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96.
An animation of infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Noul, with the storm’s forecast track as of 5/06/15. The Philippines are at upper left. (Source: CIMSS)
Whether or not Noul does make landfall in the Philippines, or simply grazes it, the storm will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the archipelago in 2015. As Bob Henson points out at Wunderground.com:
The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season–during Easter weekend, April 4 – 5.
It’s a good thing that Maysak weakened considerably before making landfall. Earlier on its trek across the western Pacific it was a Category 5 super typhoon that was notable for its strength so early in the season.
The system to the west of Noul has now strengthened into a tropical depression.
Tropical Depression 7, as seen in an infrared satellite image. (Source: CIMSS)
Designated Tropical Depression 7, the storm continues to gather strength as it heads in the general direction of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. It’s current forecast track is overlain in the infrared satellite image above. The islands form an arc in the upper left corner of the image.
Courtesy of blogs.discovermagazine.com
NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Typhoon Higos at 0310 GMT on February 10, 2015. Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
With an unexpected burst of intensification on Monday, Typhoon Higos became the strongest tropical cyclone on record for so early in the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The compact typhoon dissipated quickly after its show of strength, having spun out its short life over an empty stretch of the Northwest Pacific roughly midway between the Marshall Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. The official peak intensity of Higos, as recorded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) was 105 kts (120 mph) at 0600 GMT on February 10, making it a Category 3. Satellite imagery suggests that Higos may have briefly spiked at Category 4 strength, with an outside chance of Category 5 strength, so the storm’s peak winds could be revised in later analyses. Two NASA satellites were in place to estimate rainfall rates below Higos.
Figure 2. The satellite image at right of Higos, collected at 0301 GMT on February 10, 2015, shows a solid field of intense convection around the typhoon’s distinct eye. The typhoon’s intensity at this point or shortly thereafter may have been stronger than the officially recorded peak of 105 kts (120 mph). Image credit: NOAA, via @ wxtrackercody.
Typhoons do form on occasion in February over the Northwest Pacific, with 36 tropical cyclones on record for the region since 1900 in NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website. However, these storms tend to develop late in the month, with their peak intensities often occurring in early March. Supertyphoon Mitag formed at the end of February 2002 and attained peak winds of 140 kts (160 mph) on March 5. The strongest intensity in the official record during February is the 1970’s Typhoon Nancy, whose winds reached 120 kts (140 mph) on February 24. This also stands as a record for the entire Northern Hemisphere, since water temperatures are normally too cool and wind shear too strong to allow for hurricane development so early in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic.
Another noteworthy aspect of Higos is its position-–at peak intensity, it was more than 500 miles east of the track of any other February typhoon. The next closest is 2014’s Typhoon Faxai, although Faxai did not peak until early March. Sea-surface temperatures were close to 1°C warmer than average across the region where Higos developed (see Figure 3), part of a pattern of unusual warmth covering much of the western tropical Pacific.
Figure 3. Departures from average (anomalies) in sea-surface temperature (degrees C) for February 5, 2015, just before Typhoon Higos developed. Image credit: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations.
Courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters
Credit to Bob Henson
Pope Francis’ outdoor Mass scheduled for Saturday in the Philippines is expected to face a typhoon approaching with 75 mph winds and heavy rain.
The Pontiff is to fly Saturday morning to the Mass site in Tacloban, which is still recovering from the 2013 disaster of Super Typhoon Haiyan, described as perhaps the strongest storm ever recorded with 195 mph sustained winds that killed 6,300 people nationwide.
In the predawn hours of Saturday, another typhoon was headed for the same general area in the Philippines, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.
Typhoon Mekkhala was upgraded from a tropical storm and should make landfall in the Philippines two hours after the start of the Pope’s outdoor Mass, CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said.
Francis is scheduled to land in Tacloban at 9:30 a.m. Saturday local time (8:30 p.m. Friday ET) and will then hold an outdoor Mass 30 minutes later near the airport for hundreds of thousands of people.
Courtesy of KSPR
Typhoon Hagupit appears to be on a collision course with one of the most storm-prone nations on Earth: the island nation of the Philippines. It could strike somewhere in the central Philippines as early as this weekend, based on current forecasts, but major questions remain about its intensity and exact track.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which is run by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, forecasts the storm will reach super typhoon status as a strong Category 4 storm within the next three days, before weakening to a Category 2 storm by the time it reaches the Philippines. However, long-range track and intensity forecasts have a high amount of uncertainty, meaning that the storm could hit at a much greater intensity, or even veer away from the Philippines altogether.
According to the JTWC, computer models show “largely varying solutions” beyond 72 hours from Tuesday afternoon ET, “with results ranging from a slow re-curve scenario to a fast straight run track into the Central Philippine Islands.”
“There is overall low confidence in the forecast track,” the JTWC said in its update on Tuesday afternoon.
One ominous sign is that some computer model projections show that the storm may move through the Philippines very slowly, which would allow it to dump copious amounts of rain on hilly terrain. This would be a potentially perfect recipe for deadly mudslides and urban flooding.
The Philippines is no stranger to typhoons, and has already seen several such storms so far this year. Last year, the city of Tacloban was nearly wiped off the map by Super Typhoon Haiyan, which struck as one of the most intense such storms ever to make landfall, anywhere.
That storm had maximum sustained winds of about 190 miles per hour at landfall, and drove a devastating and deadly storm surge into coastal areas, including much of Tacloban.
It is unlikely that this storm will be of comparable intensity to Haiyan once its reaches the Philippines, but storms of lesser intensity can still pose major risks in heavily populated areas. This is particularly the case in the Philippines, where advanced warnings and storm preparations have often fallen short of those in more developed nations.
Tropical storm Five is forecast to strike India at about 18:00 GMT on 8 November. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 16.8 N, 82.4 E. Five is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 83 km/h (51 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.