Tag Archive | tropical cyclone

Rare tropical cyclone seen forming in the Coral Sea

Possible tropical cyclone forms over the Solomon Islands.
Possible tropical cyclone forms over the Solomon Islands. Photo: BoM
Australian meteorologists are closely watching a deep low-pressure system north of the Solomon Islands that may develop into the first tropical system to enter the Queensland monitoring zone in July in at least four decades.
 
The low is currently moving south-westwards and may enter Australia’s eastern region either late on Tuesday or during Wednesday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The agency said the system is expected to develop further and could form into a tropical cyclone near the islands either on Wednesday or Thursday.
 
While the system is likely to “remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast”, the bureau noted that the storm is forming well outside the official cyclone season that runs from November 1-April 30.
Deep low over the Solomon Islands may develop into a cyclone.
Deep low over the Solomon Islands may develop into a cyclone. Photo: NASA
Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the bureau, said that while it remains to be seen when and whether the system becomes a cyclone, a storm this late in the year is very rare.
 
“There is no previous instance of a July cyclone in the Queensland part of the Australian region in the satellite era” dating back to the early 1970s, Dr Trewin said.
 
The region has recorded a June event in the region, Cyclone Ida, back in 1972, and there was also a July cyclone off the west coast of Australia in 1996, he said.
Another view of the deep low over the Solomons.
Another view of the deep low over the Solomons. Photo: Nullschool.net
One consequence of a cyclone over the Solomons Islands region is that it may contribute to strengthening the El Nino now taking hold in central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
 
The developing low is likely to trigger westward wind bursts that would reinforce the reversal of the easterly trade winds, shifting more heat to the west as is typical during El Nino events.
 
Queensland, meanwhile, has seen some of the most abnormal weather in Australia during the first half of 2015.
 
The state’s mean temperature for the January-June period is running 1.06 degrees above average, making it the hottest first half of any year in more than a century of records for the state, Dr Trewin said. Average rainfall is also running about 26 per cent below average, with northern and western areas among the driest.
 
National temperatures are running about 0.49 degrees above average so far this year, he said.
Courtesy of smh.com.au

Tropical disturbance could threaten Marianas, Taiwan, Okinawa

Tropical Storm Alert

The tropical disturbance developing in Micronesia has moved three degrees north since it began forming Friday and could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two to three days, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center advised at midafternoon Saturday. 
 
National Weather Service on Guam’s latest statement said Pohn’pei and Kosrae can expect from 4 to 7 inches of rain as the system develops, possibly causing landslides and flooding.
 
The disturbance, which would become the ninth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, is forecast to gradually turn west-northwest and could threaten the Marianas islands later this week.
 
Where it heads beyond that is way too soon to tell, officials said; computer models are all over the place at this point, some pointing it toward the Philippines, others toward Taiwan, possibly grazing Okinawa, and another curving sharply northeast toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. PST has it under finger.
 
If it does become a named storm, it would be called Chan-hom, Laotian for a type of tree.
Courtesy of stripes.com

NASA sees powerful storms within Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa

NASA sees powerful storms within Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa
On June 10 at 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa off the coast of Oman. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
Two NASA satellites provided a look inside and outside of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa. NASA and JAXA’s GPM satellite observed rainfall rates and cloud heights identifying powerful thunderstorms within the cyclone, and NASA’s Aqua satellite provided an overall look at Ashobaa’s cloud extent.
 
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core observatory had an excellent view of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa in the Arabian Sea over on June 8, 2015 at 2131 UTC (5:31 p.m. EDT). As expected, Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa was more powerful than when seen by GPM earlier in the day. GPM’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments showed that rain was falling at a rate of over 70.5 mm (about 2.8 inches) per hour in bands of storms west of the center of circulation.
 
Very powerful storms were seen west of tropical cyclone ASHOBAA’s center of circulation by GPM’s Ku Band Radar. A 3-D view constructed from GPM’s Ku band radar data shows that Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa had some extremely tall storms. GPM radar data indicated that some of these very intense storms were reaching the amazing height of 21 km (13 miles).
 
On June 10 at 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa off the coast of Oman. There was no visible eye in the system, although it appears to be strengthening. Bands of thunderstorms were spiraling into the low-level center from the west and east. The MODIS image showed that the northwestern quadrant of the tropical storm was already sweeping over eastern Oman.
 
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that “Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts tight spiral banding wrapping beneath a central dense overcast feature that is elongated to the west due to moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear that will persist throughout the forecast period.” Microwave imagery shows disorganized convection along the western edge of the storm, while an eye feature can be seen in microwave data.
 
By 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Ashobaa’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 55 knots (63.9 mph/ 101.9 kph). Ashobaa was centered near 20.9 North latitude and 61.0 east longitude, about 138 nautical miles (158.8 miles/255.6 km) east-northeast of Masirah Island, Oman. The tropical storm is slowly moving west at 3 knots (3.4 mph/5.5 kph).
 
The JTWC now expects that Ashobaa will not reach hurricane-strength before making landfall early on June 12 and will weaken quickly thereafter between the interaction with land and dry air that is forecast to move into the circulation.
Courtesy of phys.org

Double Typhoon Trouble in the Western Pacific, Plus a Brewing Storm in the Atlantic Ocean

typhoon
Two tropical systems are seen in this satellite image of the Pacific Ocean basin. Typhoon Noul is marked TY06W. The system to its east stands a high chance of developing into a typhoon. (Source: JTWC)
As Typhoon Noul continues to spin up in the western Pacific Ocean, posing a distinct threat to the Philippines this weekend, a big tropical depression to the east is growing and stands a high chance of developing into a “significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours,” according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
 
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather over the Northwest Bahamas designated as Invest 90L could become a subtropical depression by Friday. The storm will likely bring heavy rain and high surf to the Carolinas on Friday.
 
Back in the Pacific, Noul has already brought high winds and heavy rain to Yap Island. The typhoon’s maximum sustained winds were pegged earlier today at 86 miles per hour, with gusts to 103. Here’s how the typhoon looked in satellite microwave imagery as it approached Yap:
typhoon
Source: CIMSS
Now it’s looking like Typhoon Noul’s track could take it a little to the west of where models previously forecast it to go — and that could be bad news for the Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the storm is currently expected to make landfall on the east coast of the Philippine island of Luzon early on Sunday local time — with sustained winds of 105 miles per hour. It’s important to note, however, that there is still some uncertainty about the storm’s ultimate track.
 
Here’s the JTC’s forecast (and note that “TAU” refers to the number of hours from the time of the forecast):
THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF LUZON, NEAR CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 84. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES; HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTH OF LAOAG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96.
typhoon
An animation of infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Noul, with the storm’s forecast track as of 5/06/15. The Philippines are at upper left. (Source: CIMSS)
Whether or not Noul does make landfall in the Philippines, or simply grazes it, the storm will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the archipelago in 2015. As Bob Henson points out at Wunderground.com:
The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season–during Easter weekend, April 4 – 5.
It’s a good thing that Maysak weakened considerably before making landfall. Earlier on its trek across the western Pacific it was a Category 5 super typhoon that was notable for its strength so early in the season.
 
The system to the west of Noul has now strengthened into a tropical depression.
typhoon
Tropical Depression 7, as seen in an infrared satellite image. (Source: CIMSS)
Designated Tropical Depression 7, the storm continues to gather strength as it heads in the general direction of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. It’s current forecast track is overlain in the infrared satellite image above. The islands form an arc in the upper left corner of the image.
Courtesy of blogs.discovermagazine.com

Tropical Cyclone to strike on 8th/9th/10 May 2015 in the Philippines

Tropical Storm Alert

A tropical cyclone that could strengthen to storm intensity will hit the country’s eastern section later this week, according to the weather bureau.
 
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Sunday said that given its current track, the cyclone may bring stormy weather to the Bicol region on the weekend.
 
As of Sunday, the cyclone was at tropical depression intensity, with maximum winds of 45 kilometers per hour while over the sea about 1,600 kilometers east of Mindanao.
 
Moving in a west northwest direction at 9 kph, the cyclone will enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on May 7, said Pagasa meteorologist Gener Quitlong.
 
Once inside the PAR, the cyclone will be named “Dodong,” the fourth storm to hit the country this year.
 
Quitlong said Dodong will likely strengthen to storm intensity as it nears the landmass.
 
He said the storm will start to affect the eastern sections of the Visayas and Mindanao on May 8.
 
Unless the cyclone changes direction, it is forecast to make landfall in the Bicol region on May 9 or 10, Quitlong said.
 
Pagasa said that on average, one to two cyclones hit the country in the month of May.
Courtesy of newsinfo.inquirer.net

Tropical cyclone forms in the Indian Ocean; It will reach Category 3

Cyclone Alert

A new tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean is expected to reach severe category three strength but quickly lose steam again as it nears the WA coast.
 
Category one tropical Cyclone Quang formed about 2am on Wednesday in the Indian Ocean.
 
It has sustained winds near its centre of 75km/h with gusts to 100km/h and is located 910km north-northwest of Exmouth, moving west southwest at 15km/h.
 
The Bureau of Meteorology predicts the storm will intensify to category three as it turns southeast towards WA, but is expected to quickly weaken below cyclone strength as it nears the coast Friday afternoon.
Courtesy of au.news.yahoo.com

Tropical Cyclone Lam Approaches Northern Territory Of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Lam approaches NT
Cyclone Lam track map issued at 2pm today. Picture: BOM Source: Supplied
SCHOOLS expected to be in the path of Tropical Cyclone Lam will be closed on Wednesday as the Top End community of Nhulunbuy braces for a severe storm expected to reach category four.
 
Chief Minister Adam Giles on Tuesday announced the closure of five schools.
 
“The residents of Nhulunbuy could wake up to gale force winds tomorrow morning so now is the time to act,” said Todd Smith, regional director of the Northern Territory Bureau of Meteorology. As of 2pm CST, the category two storm was about 260km east northeast of Nhulunbuy and travelling steadily westwards, he said. The BOM expects it to continue to intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours.
 
A cyclone watch alert is still current for Maningrida to Groot Eyelandt, and Elcho Island to Cape Shield are still covered by a cyclone warning.
 
Gusts at the centre of Tropical Cyclone Lam are currently at about 140km/h but by the time it reaches Nhulunbuy late on Thursday could reach speeds of 220-270km/h once it intensifies into a category three or four.
 
Meteorologists currently expect it to take a southerly turn and track down along the east coast of the top end, Mr Smith said. There is already significant rainfall around the 20-50mm range, and there will be much heavier falls along the coast as the cyclone nears.
 
A flood watch is current for the Arnhem Land and Gulf country coast, but Mr Smith said that there could be major falls in the Roper and McArthur River catchments towards the weekend with significant stream rises.
 
With a severe tropical cyclone from category three and above, there is more significant damage to infrastructure, damage to roofs, trees, and much greater danger to life, Mr Smith said. “Having infrastructure exposed to those winds for a long period of time is a concern,” he said.
 
The extent of the damage will depend on how close the storm’s eye passes near communities, he said.
 
Residents have not yet been told to evacuate, but they should be preparing their emergency kits if they haven’t yet done so, and have decided where to shelter.
 
The BOM will update its advice every three hours, and then more frequently as the cyclone nears land.
Courtesy of The Australian

Tropical Cyclone Eunice Reaches Category 5 Status

30.01.15 Tropical Cyclone Eunice
Infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Eunice at Category 5 intensity on Jan. 30, 2015 at 4:50 a.m. EST. (Navy/NRL)
It may be winter in the northern hemisphere, but Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Eunice is churning south of the equator as January wraps up.
 
Eunice, first classified as a tropical storm Tuesday Jan. 27 about 1200 miles east of Madagascar in the southern Indian Ocean, exploded from a tropical storm with winds estimated at 60 mph Tuesday evening (U.S. EST) to Category 5 intensity, with maximum winds of 160 mph just 48 hours later, 
according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This is an impressive rate of rapid intensification.
Courtesy of The Weather Channel

At least Six dead as cyclone lashes Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Bansi off Madagascar, described as an extremely intense class two cyclone, January 18, 2015. — AFP pic
Tropical Cyclone Bansi off Madagascar, described as an extremely intense class two cyclone, January 18, 2015. — AFP pic
At least six people perished in a tropical storm that battered Madagascar over the past two days, affecting almost 80,000 residents, according to an official toll published today.
 
Local radio said as many as 13 people may have died, including two in Antananarivo, capital of the Indian Ocean island.
 
Tropical storm Chedza swept through Madagascar on Friday and yesterday, adding to the country’s woes after the government resigned last week in the face of violent protests over recurring power blackouts.
 
A meteorological report warned that there was still a danger of flooding in certain areas around Antananarivo.
 
Two people died earlier this month when angry residents took to the streets to protest rolling power blackouts.
 
A new prime minister was appointed last week after the resignation of the government which had come under fire for its handling of the repeated electricity failures.
Courtesy of The Malay Mail Online

Tropical Cyclone Bansi is intensifying to 115mph and heading for Madagascar and Mauritius

Yellow Alert

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Cyclone Bansi on January 12 as it was intensifying rapidly and saw a cloud-covered eye in the storm’s center. Bansi has triggered warnings for the island of Mauritius and is expected to continue intensifying while passing it.
 
On Sunday, January 11, Tropical Cyclone Bansi formed north of La Reunion Island in the Southern Indian Ocean and triggered two alerts. A tropical cyclone warning class I was posted at Mauritius, and a Yellow pre-alert went into effect for La Reunion Island. At 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST) Tropical Cyclone Bansi (formerly System 92S) was located about 254 nautical miles north of St Denis, La Reunion Island. It was slowly moving to the east-southeast and had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/62 kph).
 
On January 11 at 06:40 UTC (1:40 a.m. EST) the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured an image of Tropical Cyclone Bansi. The MODIS image showed strong thunderstorms tightly wrapped around the center, and a large, wide band of thunderstorms in the storm’s eastern quadrant spiraling around the storm and into the center from the west.
IMAGE
Photo by NASA
On January 11 at 06:40 UTC (1:40 a.m. EST) the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured an image of Tropical Cyclone Bansi. The MODIS image showed strong thunderstorms tightly wrapped around the center, and a large, wide band of thunderstorms in the storm’s eastern quadrant spiraling around the storm and into the center from the west.
 
By January 12 at 10:10 UTC (5:10 a.m. EST) when the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead, the storm had rapidly consolidated and the bands of thunderstorms circling the center had expanded. Bands of thunderstorms spiraling around the storm wrapped around the storm from the northwest to the southeast and finally wrapping into the center from the west. The eye of the storm appeared covered by high clouds.
 
In Mauritius, the warnings on January 12 were changed to a tropical cyclone warning class 2. La Reunion, which lies to the southwest of Mauritius and is farther from the storm remained on Yellow pre-alert.
 
In less than 24 hours after it formed, Bansi strengthened from a minimal tropical storm into a major hurricane (Category 3) with maximum sustained winds. A Category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale has sustained winds from 111 to 129 mph (96 to 112 knots/178 to 208 kph).
 
At 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST) on January 12, Bansi had maximum sustained winds near 100 knots (115.1. mph/185.2 kph). Bansi was centered near 17.2 south latitude and 56.1 east longitude, about 191 nautical miles (219.8 miles/ 353.7 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked eastward at 7 knots (8.0 mph/12.9 kph).
 
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that Bansi continued to rapidly intensify as a result of passage over warm water, low vertical wind shear, and outflow aloft. A tropical cyclone needs good outflow (where winds spread out at the top of the hurricane) to maintain strength. Outflow means that air spreads out over the top of the storm assisting in its development. When outflow is weakened, the storm weakens.
 
Bansi is moving eastward along the southern edge of a near-equatorial ridge (elongated area) of high pressure. Bansi is forecast to continue moving to the east then southeast while strengthening to 125 knots before running into atmospheric conditions and cooler waters that will weaken it.
Courtesy of eurekalert