MAGNITUDE 5.9 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=574979

Subject To Change

Depth: 10 km

Distances: 2690 km SW of Wellington, New Zealand / pop: 382,000 / local time: 00:14:25.8 2017-03-10
2767 km S of Canberra, Australia / pop: 328,000 / local time: 22:14:25.8 2017-03-09
4395 km S of Nouméa, New Caledonia / pop: 93,100 / local time: 22:14:25.8 2017-03-09

 

MAGNITUDE 5.1 PACIFIC ANTARCTIC RIDGE

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=574736

Subject To Change

Depth: 10 km

Distances: 4002 km SE of Wellington, New Zealand / pop: 382,000 / local time: 03:03:30.0 2017-03-09
4252 km SE of Avarua, Cook Islands / pop: 13,400 / local time: 04:03:30.0 2017-03-08
4274 km S of Papeete, French Polynesia / pop: 26,400 / local time: 04:03:30.0 2017-03-08

 

Double Typhoon Trouble in the Western Pacific, Plus a Brewing Storm in the Atlantic Ocean

Two tropical systems are seen in this satellite image of the Pacific Ocean basin. Typhoon Noul is marked TY06W. The system to its east stands a high chance of developing into a typhoon. (Source: JTWC)

As Typhoon Noul continues to spin up in the western Pacific Ocean, posing a distinct threat to the Philippines this weekend, a big tropical depression to the east is growing and stands a high chance of developing into a “significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours,” according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

 

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather over the Northwest Bahamas designated as Invest 90L could become a subtropical depression by Friday. The storm will likely bring heavy rain and high surf to the Carolinas on Friday.

 

Back in the Pacific, Noul has already brought high winds and heavy rain to Yap Island. The typhoon’s maximum sustained winds were pegged earlier today at 86 miles per hour, with gusts to 103. Here’s how the typhoon looked in satellite microwave imagery as it approached Yap:

Source: CIMSS

Now it’s looking like Typhoon Noul’s track could take it a little to the west of where models previously forecast it to go — and that could be bad news for the Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the storm is currently expected to make landfall on the east coast of the Philippine island of Luzon early on Sunday local time — with sustained winds of 105 miles per hour. It’s important to note, however, that there is still some uncertainty about the storm’s ultimate track.

 

Here’s the JTC’s forecast (and note that “TAU” refers to the number of hours from the time of the forecast):

THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF LUZON, NEAR CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 84. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES; HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTH OF LAOAG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96.

An animation of infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Noul, with the storm’s forecast track as of 5/06/15. The Philippines are at upper left. (Source: CIMSS)

Whether or not Noul does make landfall in the Philippines, or simply grazes it, the storm will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the archipelago in 2015. As Bob Henson points out at Wunderground.com:

The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season–during Easter weekend, April 4 – 5.

It’s a good thing that Maysak weakened considerably before making landfall. Earlier on its trek across the western Pacific it was a Category 5 super typhoon that was notable for its strength so early in the season.

 

The system to the west of Noul has now strengthened into a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 7, as seen in an infrared satellite image. (Source: CIMSS)

Designated Tropical Depression 7, the storm continues to gather strength as it heads in the general direction of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. It’s current forecast track is overlain in the infrared satellite image above. The islands form an arc in the upper left corner of the image.

Courtesy of blogs.discovermagazine.com

http://tinyurl.com/mxrdlwr

2 Navy Fighter Jets Crash Into Pacific; One Pilot Still Missing

Two Navy fighter jets crashed into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening, according to the Defense Department.

 

The pilot of one of the planes, both F-18 Hornets, was rescued and taken back to the carrier Carl Vinson to receive medical attention. Search and rescue teams were still looking for the pilot of the second plane.

 

Neither plane has been recovered yet, the Navy said in a statement. The two planes were “operating at sea in the western Pacific Ocean” when they crashed.

 

“The cause of the incident is still under investigation,” the Navy statement said.

http://tinyurl.com/ko7zhpb

Typhoon ‘drought’ in northwest Pacific region is on the verge of breaking records

Though typhoons are typical in the northwest Pacific Ocean this month, Central Weather Bureau (CWB) records yesterday showed that none has formed in the region so far this month.

The bureau data showed that Typhoon Genevieve was the only typhoon this month, but it formed in the eastern Pacific region and crossed the international date line to the northwest Pacific.

The absence of regionally generated typhoons in August would be a new record that has held since 1958, when the bureau began to issue typhoon alerts.

Previously, the bureau forecast that 29 to 32 typhoons would form in this region this year, higher than the average of 25.7 per year. It further predicted that three to five typhoons would affect Taiwan.

Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典), director of the bureau’s weather forecasting center, said the bureau is likely to lower its forecasts of the number of typhoons to be formed in the northwest Pacific region, as well as the number of typhoons that would affect the nation this year.

Despite the unusual atmospheric conditions in the northwest Pacific, Cheng said that people should still be on the alert, because typhoons could still be formed next month and in October.

Statistics from the bureau showed that an average of 5.6 typhoons are formed in the northwest Pacific in August, which is the month with the highest number of typhoons.

Though this month ends on Sunday, the bureau said that the chance of typhoons in the region would still be lower than normal, because of the influence from a strong high-pressure air system.

Prior to this year, CWB records showed that 1977, 1979 and 1980 were years in which the number of the typhoons formed in August was lower than the climate average, with each having just two typhoons.

This year would set the record for the least typhoons formed in August, even including the one formed in the East Pacific.

Commenting on the factors behind the phenomenon, Cheng said India’s summer monsoon is weak this year.

Specifically, the southwest monsoon trough almost disappeared, causing the high-pressure system to spread toward the tropics and making it difficult for typhoons to develop and grow, he said.

Cheng said that the El Nino effect, which generally helps typhoon development, has yet to appear, adding that surface sea temperatures are close to or lower than average in some regions.

All these factors explain why so few typhoons have formed this month, he said.

http://tinyurl.com/pfkz5f8

Hurricane Iselle 2014 Projected Path Released by National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Iselle 2014’s projected path was released to news moments ago by the National Hurricane Center. Out in the Pacific Ocean, near the southern tip of Baja California, TS Iselle is travelling currently. But as of Friday, strengthening is expected. NHC is now warning of a Hurricane Iselle to form later today.

 

Officials tell news that TS Iselle 2014 is now travelling roughly 10 mph in a northwest movement through the waters of the Pacific. As of 8 pm Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Iselle is now moving steadily at a pace to the north. That direction is not expected to change through Sunday, NHC tell news.

 

Currently, TS Iselle 2014 is carrying winds up to nearly 65 mph. There is strengthening coming late today. NHC warns that Hurricane Iselle could form late Friday, and as early as midday Friday. She is currently carrying “tropical storm force winds … outward up to 105 mph”, reps tell news.

 

Hurricane Iselle should become the newest hurricane in Pacific late today August 1, 2014. But there are no currently hazards to land. There are no coast watches or warnings are in effect. NHC indicates that the next update will be at 2 pm PST today. There are no other tropical storms currently in the pacific.

http://tinyurl.com/mk7vnjg

Tropical Storm Douglas is moving across the Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm Douglas is moving aimlessly across the Pacific Ocean. As of the 0300Z NHC advisory, the following information was posted on Douglas:

Wind: 40 mph, with higher gusts

Location: 16.4°N 113.0°W

Movement: WNW at 16 mph

Pressure: 1003 mb

Latest satellite data shows an increase in central convection, although scatterometer and satellite data indicate that the radius of maximum winds is still probably about 75 miles, localized within the vigorous convective band orbiting cyclonically around the south side of the center. Interestingly, the prominent rainband that was emanating north from the center earlier has essentially dissipated, which could herald the formative stages of an inner core as the outer circulation becomes less competitive, but we shall see. The 6z satellite estimates certainly haven’t convinced me that Douglas is strengthening, and the large size will likely continue to be its own worst enemy.

http://tinyurl.com/o86nbll